Viewpoints Don’t Fight the Fed, But Don’t Lose the Thread The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to pause rate hikes in 2023. At least three factors will drive the decision on when and at what rate to pause.
This is my first installment of a series of essays exploring global economic and financial themes. While many of these essays (including today’s) will focus on the U.S. Federal Reserve as one of the world’s major monetary policymakers, in future essays I will also offer my perspectives on the global economy and financial markets more broadly. My aim is to help readers extract signal from noise and spot emerging trends hidden in the gusher of economic and financial data that flood our inboxes and fill our screens every day. We’re concluding a turbulent year in U.S. and global financial markets – and a deeply painful one for most investors. Major drivers of the tumult were the decisions by the Fed and other major central banks to undertake abrupt and correlated (if not coordinated) hawkish monetary policy pivots to try to get ahead of an inflation curve that has turned out to be hockey-stick steep, distressingly persistent, and broadly evident in both price and wage data (see Figure 1). To Read the Full Article Log In Or Register
Asset Allocation Outlook When Markets Diverge, Opportunities Emerge Shifting dynamics among global economies and markets present a range of opportunities for multi-asset portfolios.
Economic and Market Commentary The Cost of Cash: A $6 Trillion Question In this PIMCO Perspectives, we examine how the return of elevated bond yields comes at an opportune time to consider shifting out of cash.
Blog The Fed: Stuck On Hold for Now Despite the reacceleration of inflation and enduring labor market strength, the Fed remains focused on downside risks.
Viewpoints Will the True Treasury Term Premium Please Stand Up? Various methods to estimate this key bond market gauge differ on details but appear to signal rising investor compensation.
Blog ECB: Eyeing a June Rate Cut While the European Central Bank refrained from declaring victory at its April meeting, a June rate cut seems increasingly likely.
Blog Persistent Inflation Pressures Could Delay Fed Action The March U.S. inflation report and other macro data will likely prompt a change in the Federal Reserve’s trajectory in 2024.
Blog The Fed: Stuck On Hold for Now Despite the reacceleration of inflation and enduring labor market strength, the Fed remains focused on downside risks.
Viewpoints Will the True Treasury Term Premium Please Stand Up? Various methods to estimate this key bond market gauge differ on details but appear to signal rising investor compensation.
Blog Persistent Inflation Pressures Could Delay Fed Action The March U.S. inflation report and other macro data will likely prompt a change in the Federal Reserve’s trajectory in 2024.